Vietnam will have a new generation of the Communist Party leaders. What do you forecast for Vietnam’s development in the coming years with the new Party leadership?
Since the Fifth Party Congress in 1982, Vietnam has brought a controlled process of generational change to its Party Central Committee. On average, 37 per cent of members are retired at each national congress. Increasingly, a younger generation that is more educated and more experienced in the realities of socio-economic management and development is finding its way into the highest Party decision-making bodies. This new generation of leaders will only serve to strengthen the present trend of achieving the goal of industrialisation and modernisation by 2020.

There have undoubtedly been economic achievements in the past 20 years of doi moi under the leadership of the Communist Party. But current public opinion in Vietnam has raised the need for faster reform and stronger policies. Do you think this is a challenge for the new leadership? Do you think they are willing and determined enough to speed up reform?
The Party has already committed itself to stepping up the pace of renewal. Vietnam started from a low position, so progress in the early years of doi moi was quite dramatic. But developments over the past five years have shown that this process has slowed somewhat. What is required is for a firm and united leadership that is capable of pushing forward policies that have already been agreed upon. This means tackling vested interests and “independent kingdoms”. The 10th Congress will create momentum to carry out more comprehensive renewal.

Can you name the major challenges for the new Party leadership in the coming years in the context of Vietnam’s deeper integration into the world economy?
The major challenge for Vietnam will be to sustain a growth rate of nearly eight per cent in order to provide over 1.6 million new jobs each year. Not only must Vietnam keep up high rates of growth, but economic growth must be sustainable and equitable. So far, growth has been at a huge cost to the environment and at some point this neglect must be addressed.

Vietnam has been successful in attracting FDI and in promoting a domestic private sector. But the Party has voted to be consistent with a socialist-oriented economy. Do you think the term ‘socialist-oriented’ will affect the psychology of foreign and domestic investors?
The change in Party rules to permit Party members to become private entrepreneurs is a good decision, but its scope still has to be approved by the 10th Congress. There is great reluctance to allow private entrepreneurs to become Party members. The growth of the private sector, which contributes more than half of the nation’s GDP, must be given representation in Vietnam’s political system. This poses a problem for those who see exploitation of man by man as a feature of the capitalist system. This is a problem for Vietnam to resolve. So far it has not been an impediment to the psychology of foreign and domestic investors. But it could become a problem if Vietnam’s socialist orientation in practice impedes the efficiency of market forces and makes transactions more expensive.

The Party did not invite foreign delegations to its 10th Congress. What are your thoughts on this?
The decision not to invite foreign delegates has two dimensions. First, it will allow for fuller and frank discussion and debate by delegates. This may allow delegates, for example, to discuss how to balance Vietnam’s relations with major powers. This is a positive development. Second, there are few communist parties left in the world today. Vietnam has greatly enhanced its international prestige by hosting the Summit of French-Speaking Nations, the ASEAN Summit, the ASEAN Regional Forum, the ASEM Summit, etc. The presence of foreign delegates from communist parties and national liberation movements not in power at the 10th Congress could distract from the image of Vietnam. Without foreign delegates, the congress will be seen as a domestic affair.

A majority of leaders of state and government agencies are Party members. Do you think this affects the assurance of the rule of law?
Vietnam is becoming a law-governed state because of the enormous strides made by the National Assembly in passing legislation. Vietnam’s laws will be implemented if all citizens, Party and non-Party, are treated equally. The Nam Cam and PMU18 scandals revealed that high-level Party members, even members of the Central Committee, have been implicated. To the extent that an “umbrella network” exists to protect Party officials, this would affect the impartial administration of the rule of law. Vietnam needs to strengthen the capacity of the procuracy and inspection system to perform its role. Again, strong national leadership is needed. If the Party is “clean and strong”, the dominating presence of Party members in state and government agencies should not be an impediment to the effective rule of law. Protection needs to be given to “whistle blowers” and greater scope should be accorded to the media to investigate and report on corruption.

Workers account for only three per cent of attendees at the congress, and farmers only two per cent. How do you assess this rate?
This is a surprising statistic given that the Communist Party of Vietnam is based on the worker-peasant-intellectual alliance. But having class representation for the sake of class representation does not ensure that the congress’ decision-making process will be any better. The statistics that are important would be those that indicated the areas of responsibility of delegates. In other words, how many delegates have careers that are directly involved in agriculture work or in industry and labour relations?

How might the international community view the outcome of this congress, in your opinion?
In my opinion, the attention of the international community has been distracted by the PMU18 scandal. The international community is now focused on how Vietnam will deal with large-scale corruption involving funds provided by the World Bank, Japan and other foreign countries. Some in the international community have said that the 10th Congress is not important because there will be no change in Vietnam’s socio-economic development policies. The international community understands that the five-yearly congresses are important events for Vietnam but they have no means to assess what are the real issues. The international community, for example, is completely in the dark about what a market economy with a socialist orientation means in practical terms.

How important is the 10th Congress to Vietnam’s development compared with the previous ones?
It is my view that the 10th Party Congress is important not only for understanding Vietnam’s commitment to continue to carry out renewal, but important for the decisions it makes about Party leadership, organisation, and Party-building. I feel that it is important who the next secretary general is because the political skills that person brings to bear will be important for reaching consensus and exercising leadership within the CPV to address priority issues. I also feel that the selection of Party members to the Politburo is important for the experience and quality of leadership that they can bring to bear on their assigned areas of responsibility. Who will become the next prime minister is very important for the administration of the government and its ministries. If the international community knew more about these leaders and how they were selected, it would be even more supportive of Vietnam.


Source: Vietnam Investment Review
              April 24-30, 2006