At the National Assembly session on October 21, two deputies mentioned a ‘report of a big financial institution in the US which says that Vietnam can rank 17^th worldwide in economic potential in 2025”.

Another NA deputy said, “I suspect it and I will try to live 19 years more to see the fact”.  

So, what is this report?

The above prediction comes from a report by Goldman-Sachs. In 2003, this group presented a report named “Dreaming with BRICs: the path to 2050”, and last December it released report No. 134 with a forecast on the next 11 economies (N-11), including Vietnam. 

According to the report, of those 11 economies, the Republic of Korea (RoK) and Mexico can follow Brazil, Russia, India and China - the BRICs economies. The two countries currently have high per capita income ($17,000/person/year in the RoK and $7,000/person/year in Mexico).

The authors emphasise that the report only forecasts the potential to reach that position, not confirm that BRICs and N-11 will gain the predicted growth rates.  

The report identifies problems that N-11 economies have to solve to realise their dreams.

Related to Vietnam, the report ranks Vietnam at 11^th in the N-11 group in 2004: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, the RoK, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. 

To evaluate the growth potential, authors use the Growth Environment Score (GES), including five groups of standards:

-          Macroeconomic stability: Inflation; government deficit; external debt

-          Macroeconomic conditions: Investment rates; openness of the economy

-          Technological capabilities: Penetration of PCs; phones; internet

-          Human capital: Education; life expectancy

-          Political conditions: Political stability; rule of law; corruption

Of the 17 ranked economies (including BRICs, RoK, Mexico and N-11 group), Vietnam ranks fourth after RoK, China and Mexico for GES.

Vietnam ranks 1^st for political stability, 2^nd for education and investment, 1^st for openness of the economy, 4^th for government deficit, and 7^th for foreign debt.

Based on the above standards, the report of Goldman-Sachs forecasts that by 2025, Vietnam may be the 17^th largest economy in the world with a GDP of $436 billion and per capita GDP of $4,357. The country’s position in the world economy will be higher by 2050.

This report should be considered as a target for Vietnam to strive for. Its realisation is totally dependent on the country’s efforts.

Goldman-Sachs is among the world’s largest financial investment groups, with 2005 turnover of US$273 billion, net profit of $24.78 billion. The group is the consultant for many of the most important companies, biggest governments, the richest families in the world.

To serve its business and consultancy target, the group researches and makes global economic forecasts. Four years ago, it created a new conception about BRICs, which it predicts can have great impacts on the global economy in the future 

After this conception was born, the four economies have developed very quickly and attracted many financial investment funds.

Source: Tuoi Tre