Tran Xuan Gia, former Minister of Planning and Investment

Last year Vietnam acknowledged significant achievements which have us believing the country will meet its goal of average per capita income of the medium level of the world by late 2008.

Regardless, I think we should not completely attribute these achievements to WTO accession. I don’t deny the influence of this event, but while we have been a member for only a year, many of these achievements are because of the efforts exerted by all Vietnamese people for the last decade. The WTO represents our successes and motivates future triumphs.

WTO membership will more significantly influence the economy in the time to come, not now. Trade conflicts and anti-dumping lawsuits are rare. Institutional reform under WTO commitments is taking place gradually. I also didn’t see adverse societal impacts result from our first year of membership. However, we cannot be assured that the situation will continue so well.

Ayumi Konishi, Vietnam Country Director of the Asian Development Bank (ADB)

We all know that Vietnam continued to record notable economic progress in 2007 and WTO membership contributed to this success. Yet, we must see that Vietnam’s WTO accession was somewhat sourced from local economic reforms in the 1980s, during the early stages of “Doi Moi” (renovation process).

I think WTO accession will help Vietnam pursue its reform process, modernize its trade laws, facilitate trade and business environments, as well as improve transparency and publicity.

Additionally, Vietnam’s WTO accession not only influences trade, but other policies as well. Thus, achievements in 2007 are a combination of the reform process and WTO accession.

Dr. Nguyen Quang A, senior economist

2007 was Vietnam’s first year with the WTO. It can be summed up as a successful year with a high and stable economic growth rate.

I think Vietnam’s WTO commitments are the foundation for our renovation. Looking back to 2007, we can see the influences of WTO membership on local retailers. Though they are not overly strong, in the near future, when foreign retailers enter Vietnam under the retail market opening itinerary, it will be different. To survive, local retailers must fundamentally change the way they do business.

Many thought the WTO’s influence was negative but actually WTO membership forces Vietnamese businesses to adapt to a modern, international system. The competitiveness of local companies has been very weak and the best way to improve is accelerating the opening process.

Dr. Nguyen Si Dung, Vice Chairman of the National Assembly Office

These were the early steps of a long journey. The joyfulness and worries at the beginning have cooled down. We acknowledge more clearly the benefits as well as the challenges of WTO accession.

In the first year, the clearest benefit from WTO membership was the sudden increase of foreign capital flow and the clearest challenge was the appearance of KFC fast food restaurants, which are attracting a large number of young customers.

After one year, the situation is generally favorable, but we should pay attention to current problems and quickly seek solutions to them.

In my opinion, these problems include poor infrastructure (especially traffic and power facilities), a human resources shortage, slow institutional reform, drastically increasing pollution and an ever increasing socio-economic gap.

Former Trade Minister Truong Dinh Tuyen said “participating in the WTO is like marrying a girl. It may start with a  wedding party, but how it ends is the question”. We are not out of the woods yet.

Sandeep Chachra, ActionAid International

Supported by WTO accession, market integration is creating a new trend, a division of classes, if you will. The first is newly emerging powers, including the (so-called) capitalists, securities investors and business owners. The second is those without much of a voice, vulnerable, typically the community of rural people and laborers. This is the impact of globalization that Vietnam will be most faced by and must solve.

Dr. Trinh Minh Anh, Vice Chairman of the National Committee for International Economic Cooperation Office

Vietnam has only been a WTO member for one year, so direct impacts of WTO membership on the economy is unclear. We can explain this by four reasons.

Firstly, any policy needs time to take effect. Secondly, many WTO commitments, including tariff reductions, don’t take effect immediately but after a certain period of time. Thirdly, we don’t have documents guiding the implementation of some WTO commitments yet. Fourthly, the WTO is only one of four channels for international integration; others include the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Asia – Europe Meeting forum (ASEM) and Asia - Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC), and bilateral channels.

I think the biggest impact on the economy in 2007 was the shift of economic management policies towards more transparency, lessening discrimination between economic sectors. This stimulated the economy, which resultantly reached a growth rate of 8.44%, higher than expected.

However, it would be a big mistake if we amend economic policies to only fit with WTO. We should adjust them according to the level, situation and the need of the domestic economy.

The WTO doesn’t prohibit us from opening our door faster and wider than our commitments. So we have to consider opening it faster in some areas, for example vocational training, logistics and freight delivering services, transport, etc.

I think in the next 3-4 years, the national economy will see great and positive changes, after all the WTO commitments have taken effect.

Jonathan Pincus, UNDP senior economist

FDI attraction is very important for economic growth and creating jobs. The most important way to be rid of hunger and poverty is by creating many good jobs so Vietnam can continue drawing investment into the industries that require skilled workers.

However, high inflation in 2007 is a thorny problem, especially for the poor. I think price escalation was not directly related to WTO accession but, rather, the consequence of increasing oil and food prices and a few inside factors.

Policy makers will have to make difficult decisions in 2008 to reduce inflation and protect the real value of the lower classes’ income.

Vietnam’s WTO commitments will be gradually implemented in the next few years. The most difficult are still ahead, including many service-related commitments. Vietnam has to prepare for fiercer competition in the service sector, for example retailing, distribution, and financial services.

Vietnam also needs to improve the quality of education if it wants to continue attracting both domestic and foreign investors.

Source: TBKTVN.