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Vietnam's inflation, trade gap rise, growth slows (27/03)

06/08/2010 - 34 Lượt xem

The developing Southeast Asian country estimated its consumer price index for March would jump 19.39 percent from a year earlier, the highest rise in more than 12 years and the fifth double-digit increase in a row.

Economists and analysts have suggested that a reduction in the government's GDP growth target, a faster appreciation of the Vietnamese dong against the dollar and an interest rate increase would ease inflation, which is primarily driven by high international commodities prices.

"The government should officially lower the GDP target for 2008 to 8 percent or less due to the external issues of a slowdown in the world economy," said Adam McCarty, economist at Mekong Economics consultancy in Hanoi.

The Asian Development Bank has also said slower growth towards 8 percent instead of the government target of between 8.5 percent and 9 percent could help contain inflation.

In other government statistics released on Tuesday, imports surged 62.5 percent in the first quarter, three times faster than export growth.

The trade deficit was estimated to widen to $7.36 billion in the first three months compared with $1.93 billion in January to March of 2007.

Vietnam, which has one of the world's fastest-growing economies after China with average 7 percent expansion since 2000, forecast slighly slower growth in the first quarter, local media quoted government figures as showing.

The Vietnam Net online newspaper said the Planning and Investment Ministry estimated GDP growth of 7.43 percent in the first quarter of this year from a year earlier. GDP rose 7.73 percent in the first quarter of 2007 from the same period in 2006, the government has said.

ANZ Bank economists said in a research note for March that this year "it is difficult to see the government meeting its target of keeping inflation below real GDP growth".

The bank forecast GDP growth of 8 percent and inflation to average 13.8 percent this year.

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said last week the government's priority was to control inflation, "at least not to let it rise beyond last year's level" of 12.6 percent.

Dung told agriculture officials last Thursday that Vietnam should aim for GDP growth of 8 percent to 8.5 percent, the official Vietnam News Agency reported.

Source: Reuters