Thanh said that Vietnam is at the centre of attention of the region and the world. There are three main viewpoints about Vietnam.

First, Vietnam is now in crisis with its problems in payment balance and in the monetary market caused by the devaluation of the VND.

Second, the problems in Vietnam are serious, but not very bad. The future of Vietnam, whether it becomes better or worse, will depend on the policies the government pursues.

Third, the optimistic viewpoint, which can be seen in the government’s reports or statements by Communist Party and state leaders, says that the difficulties are now just temporary, while Vietnam still has long-term potential.

The three viewpoints all have a common element: Vietnam is facing difficulties. But they give different opinions about the seriousness of the difficulties.

What is your viewpoint about the seriousness of the difficulties Vietnam is facing?

I think that the current conditions of the national economy, especially the high inflation, are the big concerns. However, I think that the scenario that Vietnam will overcome the difficulties is more likely than the scenario that it will not overcome them.

However, whether Vietnam can overcome difficulties still depends on policies. In fact, our potentials prove to be very good. Our exports and foreign direct investment both have increased. 7% in six months proves to be a low growth rate, but not really bad.

I think that the biggest problem now is not the unsatisfactory figures about international trade balance, about economic groups’ investments or the trade deficit. The most important thing we need now is confidence, not macroeconomic indices.

Why do you think so?

Because if we don’t have confidence, the government’s macroeconomic policies will not bring the desired effects.

If people don’t have expectations and confidence in the future, they will not pay attention to long-term production and business, they will only care about immediate benefits. They will only rush to make investments in the fields that can bring them fast profit.

As you may know, several foreign institutions have recently released reports with pessimistic viewpoints about Vietnam’s economy, saying that Vietnam is sliding into recession. What would you say about that?

I think we should appreciate all information and consider all opinions thoroughly. The World Bank’s conclusion is considered neutral, while the viewpoint by Morgan Stanley and some other institutions are considered pessimistic. The institutions are investors and they have different viewpoints about Vietnam’s economy. I think that all the information deserves thorough consideration.

As you said above, the most important thing now is that we need confidence. But what should we do to maintain people’s confidence?

The most effective way is to implement the group of measures the government has drawn up, which include the measures on fiscal and monetary policies, helping poor people and cutting public investments.

However, the measures need to be implemented in a courageous, resolute and thorough way. This will help restore people’s confidence that the government will control the situation and stabilise the macroeconomy. That would be the best scenario.

I think that the government needs to make strong commitments and implement the commitments in a resolute and transparent way. It needs to give details about all information related to economic policies, and explain why it has to do this and does not do that.

Source: TBKTVN