The trade deficit was very high in the first five months of the year, at $13,584mil, but then was restrained in the next five months, at $2,677mil; therefore, the trade deficit of the first 10 months of the year was an acceptable $16.3bil.

The trade deficit has been eased thanks to satisfactory exports. Vietnam’s total export turnover in the first 10 months reached $53.8bil, an increase of 36.7% over the same period of last year.

The exports of key products saw considerable increases, including crude oil ($9.4bil in turnover, up by 43%), apparel ($7.6bil, up by 20%), footwear ($3.7bil, up by 16%), rice ($2.6bil, up by 83%), woodwork ($2.23bil, up by 18.6%), electronics and computers ($2.2bil, up by 27.3%), coffee ($1.69bil, up by 9.5%), rubber ($1.39bil, up by 28.9%).

If Vietnam can export $5bil worth of products each month for the next two months, total export turnover in 2008 may exceed the $63.5bil threshold, 31% more than last year. If so, export turnover per capita will exceed $735, much higher than the $570 level of last year.

The ratio of exports to GDP will far exceed 75% (last year was 68.2%). The ratio of export growth rate to GDP growth rate will be higher than 4.6, much higher than 2.6 last year, and the highest rate since 2000.

The low trade deficit in the previous months can also be explained by import decreases. While the imports in the months before July all were nearly $7.5bil a month, the imports in the months since August have all been less than $7bil. The past five months saw sharp decreases in import volumes and prices, while some products were re-exported.

However, export turnover has shown signs of decrease ($6.547bil in July, $6.018bil in August, 5.27bil in September, and $5.1bil in October).

Analysts have said that Vietnamese exports will face big difficulties in the context of the financial crisis and global economic recession. Meanwhile, imports may increase towards the year’s end as a result of higher demand and low prices in the world market.

The export items which saw decreases:

1/ Crude oil: $1,244mil in August, $800mil in September, $700mil in October

2/ Coal: $174mil in July, $137mil in August, $130mil in September

3/ Apparel: $945mil in July, $921mil in August, and $820mil in September

4/ Footwear: $461mil in July, $392mil in August, and $320mil in September

5/ Rice: $431mil in July, $289mil in August, $260mil in September and $165mil in October

6/ Coffee: $147mil in July, $110mil in August, $101mil in September and $88mil in October

Source: TBKTVN