Economists themselves admit that the accuracy level of forecasts in Vietnam is just 50 percent. Explaining this, they say that the economic situation is really uncertain. For example, at the G20 summit this year, countries committed not to apply trade protection measures.

However, 17 of the 20 countries later all applied trade protection measures. Meanwhile, they also say Vietnam has been relying on foreign countries and international institutions in giving forecasts.

Dr Le Dinh An, Director of the Information and Socio-economic Forecasting Centre under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the agency which gives most forecasts, has admitted that forecasting agencies have been bad at their work and that wrong forecasts have been badly affecting the national economy and businesses’ operations.

According to An, one reason for the incorrect forecasts is the mushrooming of forecasts. Forecasting is being carried out mostly by government agencies. However, there are also independent institutions and individuals who give forecasts. Yet no one takes responsibility for wrong forecasts.

Vietnam learned a bitter lesson in 2008 when it forecast the inflation rate. In early 2008, government agencies forecast the economic growth rate in 2008 at 9.1 percent and the inflation rate at 8 percent. However, in fact, the economic growth rate was just a little higher than 6 percent, while the inflation rate was very high, at 24 percent, or triple the forecast level.

It seems that the incorrect forecasting has continued in 2009. Government agencies set the goal of obtaining the export growth rate of 13 percent this year after considering forecasts. However, they later realised that the target was an ‘impossible mission’ and lowered the targeted rate to 3 percent. However, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has said that even a three percent growth rate will be impossible to obtain.

According to Le Quoc Dung, Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economics Committee, Vietnam has many inaccurate forecasts because it has not paid appropriate attention to and made suitable investment in forecasting. He said that the quality of the forecasts given by Government agencies remains low.

Asian Development Bank’s Vietnam Country Director Ayumi Konishi said that Vietnam needs to have a mechanism which enables the timely collection and analysis of information.

Dr An admitted that as Vietnam has integrated more deeply into the global economy, and factors which have impacts on the national economy are changing all the time, the shortcomings in forecasting have become more serious and more visible.

An said that the biggest problem now that influences forecasting is that Vietnam still does not have a perfect economic information system. Vietnam has been relying too much on foreign information sources, while this source of information is deficient, disconnected and unsystematic.

Source: VietNamNet/TBKTVN