Tin mới
Turning Growth into Sustainable Development (25/7)
25/07/2011 - 16 Lượt xem
Increasing public and foreign debts have represented a
high percentage of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), while Vietnam's
economic growth is slowing down and this slowdown is in a danger of lasting for
a long time.
The Department of Debt Management and External Finance
(DMEF) of the Ministry of Finance announced that as of December 31, 2010, public
debts totaled VND1,122 trillion, accounting for 56.7 percent of the country's
2010 GDP, and they are expected to total VND1,375 trillion in 2011 (58.7 percent
of the country's GDP in 2011). Foreign debts totaled VND835 trillion (42.2
percent of GDP) in 2010 and are expected to amount to more than US$40 billion in
2011 (about 44.5 percent of the country's GDP in 2011). Vietnam has to pay
several billion US dollars in foreign debts each year and it is expected to have
to pay about US$10 billion in foreign debts per year in the near
future.
How can Vietnam pay these debts while its natural
resources are not outstanding remains a key question, with 60 percent of its
export revenue made by foreign direct investment (FDI) businesses. While paying
off old debts, Vietnam still has to borrow an estimated hundreds of billions of
US dollars through international cooperation to develop and modernize
infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure, electricity and water
networks in the next 10 years.
In recent years, while foreign debts have increased, the
country's economic growth has slowed considerably, with GDP in the first half of
this year improving only 5.57 percent compared to the same period in 2010.
Vietnam's GDP growth is forecast at six percent for 2011 and 6.5 percent in
2012. While the current economic growth is considerably lower than the growth of
more than seven percent per annum of the previous five-year period, Vietnam's
economic growth is mainly based on intensified use of capital, labor and natural
resources. That is a challenge not easy to surmount when controlling inflation
and focusing on macroeconomic stability are still the most important
tasks.
While the quality of economic growth remains low, the
transformation of the economic structure towards industrialization and
modernization is still tardy.
The General Statistical Office (GSO)'s statistics show
that in the first half of this year, Vietnam's GDP was VND1,069,930 billion
(according to current prices) and VND258,618 billion (according to 1994's
prices), which is 5.57 percent more than the same period of last year. Of this,
agriculture, forestry and fisheries accounted for 22.77 percent, industry and
construction represented 39.9 percent and services accounted for 37.33 percent.
Several years ago Thailand's economic structure was 11
percent agriculture, forestry and fisheries (Thailand is one of the biggest farm
produce exporters in the region), 44 percent industry and construction and over
44 percent devoted to services. It is clear that industrialization in Vietnam is
lower than in Thailand. Service industries, especially tourism, in Thailand are
more developed than their Vietnamese counterparts, while nature and cultural
heritage-related potentials in Vietnam are by no means inferior to those in
Thailand.
Effectively transforming its economic structure towards
industrialization and modernization, Thailand has reached a per capita GDP that
is more than four times that of Vietnam. If Vietnam maintains its current
economic growth and economic structure transformation pace it will lag further
behind Thailand, while the gap between Vietnam and developed economies like
Singapore and Malaysia is expected to become wider.
The industry and trade sector will play an important
role in the country's industrialization and modernization in the new period.
Technological renovation for economic growth mainly depends on labor
productivity, while development of service industries especially tourism in
accordance with the 2011-2015 socioeconomic development plan and the 2011-2020
development strategy first depends on the operational quality of the industry
and trade sector in the coming period. Quickly improving the quality of economic
growth is the most urgent need for Vietnam and Vietnam will not be a good place
for foreign high technology projects to stay for the long term, and guarantee
sustainable development until it meets this need.
In this new era, pausing means lagging behind and slow
growth means standing still and falling into an 'average income' trap. To solve
the problem it is necessary to effectively invest in and develop industry,
trade, education and training. This is an urgent, objective need./.
Source: VEN
Source: VEN
