Tin mới
Vietnam Faces Expanded ASEAN Mechanism Choice (01/8/2011)
01/08/2011 - 13 Lượt xem
In the recent period, ASEAN+3 cooperation became more substantial with the active participation of partners such as China, the Republic of Korea and Japan. After ASEAN finished negotiations and signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China in 2005, with the Republic of Korea in 2006 and with Japan in 2008, a new period of ASEAN+3 cooperation began with deeper relationships to serve the goal of creating a common FTA for the entire ASEAN+3 region. In 2004, a research team was established to draft cooperation programs aiming to create the East Asia Free Trade Area (EAFTA). The team made a report forecasting that EAFTA would benefit East Asian economies and increase their GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by at least 1.2 percent. EAFTA is expected to become the world's largest free trade area with total GDP of nearly US$3 trillion and about two billion consumers.
A new cooperation initiative, ASEAN+6, was recently established. That is an open mechanism for cooperation between East Asian countries. ASEAN+6 is ASEAN+3 plus India, Australia and New Zealand. The 'expanded' East Asian region comprises dynamic, rapidly growing economies which account for more than 50 percent of the world's population and nearly 30 percent of the world's GDP.
ASEAN+6 is similar to ASEAN+3 in terms of the objective, scope and mode of cooperation but generally, cooperation in ASEAN+6 remains loose. Japan, Australia, New Zealand and India are becoming more interested in the 'expanded' East Asia mechanism. After ASEAN finished negotiations and signed an FTA with Australia and New Zealand in 2009 and with India in 2010, a new impulse was created for ASEAN+6 countries to increase economic cooperation. They agreed to establish the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) in order to accelerate regional economic integration and intensify research on matters relating to cooperation in the 'expanded' East Asian region. They also established a Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia (CEPEA) research team to assess the impact of the ASEAN+6 free trade area.
The coexistence of ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 reflects the competition between ASEAN's partners in terms of cooperation ideas. The selection of one of those two mechanisms will decide the future trend of economic cooperation in East Asia. However, ASEAN will remain the interconnection point no matter which mechanism is selected. This helps ASEAN bring into play and strengthen its 'central' role in guiding common cooperation processes.
Many analyses indicate that ASEAN should synchronize bilateral FTAs between the bloc and East Asian partners in order to minimize the difference in terms of implementation rules. The coexistence of five bilateral FTAs between ASEAN and six East Asian countries is making the implementation process complicated and interrupts the circulation of goods and investment capital between East Asian countries. Therefore, in 2010, ASEAN created a specific mechanism to assess the efficiency of ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6, beginning with four fields: tariff harmonization, harmonization of rules of origin, harmonization of customs procedures, and economic cooperation. That was a cautious but necessary step allowing ASEAN to have more time to consider and choose the most suitable cooperation mechanism while at the same time strengthening its role in the regional structure which is forming.
For Vietnam, East Asia is the most important export market where 48 percent of its total export revenue (nearly US$30 billion) comes from. East Asia is also one of the main sources of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in Vietnam. Up to the end of November 2009, registered FDI from East Asian countries into Vietnam amounted to US$88 billion, of which US$26 billion had been disbursed. This was and will continue to be an important capital source for economic growth in Vietnam.
It is forecasted that regional economic integration in East Asia will benefit Vietnam in the long term. Econometric analyses show that Vietnam will have many opportunities to benefit from the expansion of the regional market. It is also forecasted that EAFTA and CEPEA could see Vietnam's GDP increase by 1.6 percent and 1.61 percent respectively. Thanks to the combination of liberalization, cooperation promotion and trade facilitation, EAFTA and CEPEA are predicted to help Vietnam's GDP grow by 10.97 percent and 11.04 percent respectively.
Cooperation between East Asian countries remains in the initial period but promises positive effects. ASEAN must consider as carefully as possible and bring into play its central role in choosing one of the two mechanisms, ASEAN+3 or ASEAN+6, to promote future regional economic integration. Researchers expect that Vietnam will make the most of its competitive advantages to benefit more from a larger free trade area./.
Source: EU-Vietnam MUTRAP III
