WB: Vietnam's GDP To Grow 5.8 Percent in 2011 (12/12)
12/12/2011 - 6 Lượt xem
The above projection was from an updated report on economic development in Vietnam by the World Bank (WB), and was presented by Deepak Mishra, a WB economist in Vietnam, at a press conference held prior to the year-end Consultative Group (CG) meeting of donors for Vietnam, which will take place soon in Hanoi.
Deepak Mishra said that 2011 is a tough year for all nations in the world due to the impacts of inflation, the public debt crisis and other unfavorable developments, and the global economy has shown signs of a slowdown in growth. The economic growth rate of developing countries is predicted to be 5-6 percent and that of developed countries to be much lower. Vietnam is expected to obtain a growth rate of 5.8 percent this year - lower than that of the previous years, but still high compared to the world's average growth rate.
The above mentioned report indicates that the Vietnamese economy has shown signs of stability. Inflation has decreased and this trend is forecasted to continue in the coming period. Some other indexes such as interest rates and the trade deficit have also decreased gradually. Meanwhile, the output of goods and food has increased, giving exports a boost. Data from the General Statistical Office show that in the first 11 months of this year, the export value of goods reached US$87.2 billion, up 34.7 percent compared with the same period of 2010. This is an impressive result. However, WB economists attributed the increased export value to higher export prices of some kinds of goods, but not to higher export volumes. Such an attribution is good for Vietnam.
The WB report also indicates positive signs in the attraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Vietnam. Those include a considerable decline of FDI in the field of real estate, and an increase in FDI in the field of manufacturing. This reflects the fact that FDI continues to flow into Vietnam despite the impact of the global financial crisis.
The above results show that Resolution 11/NQ-CP of the Vietnamese Government has had initial effects. Therefore, in the medium term, the Vietnamese economy will possibly not undergo a sharp decline, but it will not be able to grow at a high speed as it has in the past, at about eight percent for example.
The WB report indicates that the Vietnamese economy still has to cope with many challenges. Bad debts at Vietnam's banks remain high, and the situation has become even worse since the global financial crisis happened in 2008. Total foreign debt reached an estimated 42 percent of Vietnam's GDP in late 2010, up nearly 10 percentage points compared with late 2007. Although the foreign debt ratio is not yet a concern, it can be a threat for sustainable development, as the situation in Vietnam could get worse quickly as has happened in many developing and developed countries. Therefore, in the coming years, Vietnam must reduce the State budget deficit and continue to pursue Resolution 11/NQ-CP. It must pay more attention to restructuring State-owned enterprises and promoting the financial sector. Those efforts will help Vietnam restore a sustainable macroeconomic environment and lay the foundation for more effective growth in the medium term./.
Source: VEN.
