2012 Looks good for Vietnam's Economy (04/01)
04/01/2012 - 13 Lượt xem
It
is not thanks to Vietnamese strong beliefs in the most severe
circumstances but to their experiences over the past years, of which
the "Intangible experiences" is of great importance.
Probably
the most daunting tasks that lies before the nation's economy are that
of curbing inflation, stabilizing the macro-economy and ensuring social
security. The National Assembly has set a target of reducing inflation
from 18 percent, the ratio of 2011, to below 10 percent next year. In
fact, by the end of September 2011, inflation had climbed to 22.18
percent but significantly declined in the last three months. To fulfill
the goal of keeping inflation below 10 percent, Vietnam State
administrations are taking steps to apply comprehensive measures for
controlling gold prices, exchange rates, limit the trade deficit and grow the production sectors, particularly in the area of food production.
In
late months of 2011, industrial production decreased while the
inventories were still on the rise. The number of bankrupt companies,
or those which had to temporarily cease operations amounted to 50,000.
Most of them were small to medium enterprises (SMEs). To deal with the
issue, Government released preferential tax policies, a strategy
that will likely be widened in scope in the coming year. From early
2012, Government will issue a revised resolution of some articles
pertaining to Government Resolution 124/2008/ND-CP, dated December 11,
2008, in order to provide guidance for the implementation of the
articles in the Law on Enterprise Income Tax. The draft of this
resolution stipulates that taxes for many businesses will be
significantly cut or even suspended for more than one year. The
Political Bureau of the Communist Party of Vietnam has also issued the
Resolution No. 09-NQ/TW, whose aim is to support Vietnamese
entrepreneurs in this period of accelerating industrialization and
integration into the global community.
The
Congress of the Vietnam's Young Entrepreneurs' Association will be
organized in early 2012. This event is expected to bring about a new,
freshness to the business community.
The target set for the export market in 2012 growth of 13 percent from 2011 rates, with estimated export revenues from between US$107 billion and US$110 billion.
Vietnam
is in a good position to fulfill this target, because many of its main
export products are essential goods. Moreover, Thailand is still
struggling to recover from flood damage that has lowered its production
capacity. (ADB economic growth forecast of 4.5 percent for Thailand
compared to 6.3 percent for Vietnam) As long as Vietnamese goods can
meet the quality that customers demand, it seems that the target is not
out of reach. has many opportunities to fulfill this target as most of
Vietnamese commodities are essential provided that the goods quality
meets customer's demands.
In
terms of tight monetary policies and public investment restructuring,
the National Assembly issued a Resolution that the State budget deficit
be capped at 4.8 percent and that total social investment capital
should account for 33.5 percent of the growth of Vietnam's GDP in 2012.
This is not only an important measure to control inflation, but also
vital in terms of achieving economic growth hoped for, as well as
improving the efficiency of public investment.
Together
with efforts to attract FDI projects that involve the high-tech sector,
it is important to efficiently control the disbursement and use of
capital, as well as the licensing of projects, in the coming year.
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MoPI), the
capital of licensed FDI projects that has not been disbursed equals
US$200 billion, while the disbursed capital from 2011 was only US$11
billion. Official Development Assistance (ODA) capital is in a similar
situation, as construction projects have been attracting international
sources of capital. The percentage of disbursed ODA capital in Vietnam
is lower than the regional average (estimated at US$3.6 billion in
2011, including reciprocal capital).
The
year 2012 will be a period of economic restructuring, which will cover
the three fields of public investment, State-owned enterprises and
commercial banks.
The
development of Vietnam's economy in 2012 will depend on the results of
its renovation policies and the effectiveness of the resolutions that
are passed./.
Source: VEN
Source: VEN
