Tin mới
Stable Macroeconomic Policy Development (28/3)
28/03/2012 - 10 Lượt xem
Dialogue
participants discussed issues related to monetary, fiscal and public
investment policies and state business reform. They agreed that
Vietnamese monetary and fiscal policies in general remained
problematic, and that in the banking system the rate of bad
debts was still high, the asset value was low, the lending interest
rate was high and the deposit interest rate decreased. Dr. Nguyen Thi
Kim Thanh, the director of the Banking Strategy Institute of the State Bank of Vietnam, partially attributed the problems to Vietnam's unstable monetary policies.
According
to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in foreign countries monetary
policies were designed to control quantity and price (interest or
exchange rates) and inflation targets.
Here in Vietnam, the State Bank of Vietnam
is applying monetary policies according to quantity criteria and
realizing multi-target monetary policies. But, these policies are no
longer suitable to Vietnam as the country is pursuing a market-based
economy and realizing its World Trade Organization (WTO) commitment of becoming a market-based economy in 2018.
Dr.
Nguyen Thi Kim Thanh said that to solve the problems, from now to 2015,
monetary policies need to be managed cautiously in inflation taming
through strictly controlling credit growth and quality, and that it is
necessary to clarify investment orientations to transform the economic
structure, continue decreasing foreign currency loans, assure foreign
currency solvency and increase foreign reserve. It is important to
prepare necessary conditions to implement interest rate controlling
monetary policies, according to which monetary policy targets will be
regulated with interest rates, she said. In the long term, it is
necessary to construct inflation target-related monetary policies to
regulate the monetary market and take the initiative in controlling
inflation.
A
'tripod' strategy, including transparency improvement, payment system
development and safety legal framework improvement promotion, needs to
be applied to pave the way for implementing monetary policies.
VEPR Director, Dr. Nguyen Duc Thanh said that Vietnam's economic growth was based on investment expansion so the ratio of total
investment per gross domestic product (GDP) in Vietnam was high: 41.5
percent in 2006, 46.5 percent in 2007, 41.5 percent in 2008, 42.7
percent in 2009, 41.9 percent in 2010 and 34.6 percent in 2011. State
budget expenditure exceeded state budget revenue for a long time. State
budget revenue accounted for 24.6 percent of the country's GDP and state budget expenditure represented 32.6 percent of the
GDP in the 2001-2006 period. They were 27.2 percent and 36.3 percent in
the 2006-2010 period, respectively. Investment efficiency decreased,
while the Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) increased
considerably to reach 4.9 in the 2000-2005 period and 7.4 in the
2006-2010 period; this is a result of overlapping policies and measures, according to a research team of the University of Economics and Business (Vietnam National University Hanoi).
Thanh
said that cutting public investment needs to be a priority and that it
is necessary to increase supervision to improve public investment
efficiency. Doing this needs transparent fiscal principles that promote
decreases in state budget expenditure and balance between investment
and national savings. Constructing a schedule to narrow state-owned
enterprises and shift public investment to government spending is
necessary, while state funded projects must be strictly supervised by
central level authorities, and a legal framework on public-private
partnership (PPP) needs to be built.
It
is important to strongly reform state enterprises, allow private
businesses to participate in every market and encourage fair financial
policy-related treatment for private businesses to pave the way for
them to join fields at which they are good./.
Source: VEN.
Source: VEN.
