The ADB
said that last year's tightened money policy had contributed to curbing
inflation, but also slowed economic growth. To boost economic growth the State Bank of Vietnam recently loosened monetary policy and will continue to do so if inflation reduces further. Based on the analysis of Vietnam's macro situation in recent years, the ADB predicted that
Vietnam's economy would grow at about 5.7 percent from 2011-2012 and
increase to 6.2 percent in 2013. Inflation would reduce to almost 10
percent this year and would increase again by about 11.5 percent in
2013.
Although Tomoyuki Kimura spoke highly of the Vietnamese Government's efforts to reform the economy's structure from the beginning of this year, he emphasized the need for the country to increase transparency during the reform process, particularly in relation to the restructuring of state-owned businesses to increase their financial efficiency.
The ADB said that ensuring banking safety was now a top priority for Vietnam. However, for the long
term it needs to establish a diverse and effective financial system in
order to raise sufficient capital to achieve annual economic growth of
7-8 percent. It would take Vietnam many years to complete the reforms. However, the economic benefits would be tremendous.
The ADB also said that the rapid growth in loans in recent years, together with tightened credit in 2011 and the downturn in the real estate and securities markets, had increased the pressure on banks. The bad debt rate among Vietnamese banks had increased to 3.4 percent of all debts, which together with increased risks for several banks, has strengthened doubts about capital safety among particularly small banks. The risks were becoming more serious due to shortcomings in banking risk management and business administration.
The 16 percent increase in US dollar loans in 2011 had also increased foreign exchange risks for banks, causing the State Bank to tighten control of loans in foreign currency. Specifically, the State
Bank will restrict foreign currency loans and will only provide such
loans for import-export businesses in order to minimize foreign
exchange at banks.
In a bid to restructure the financial and banking system the Government
drew up a plan last month to pump capital into banks and to encourage
strong banks to buy out weaker performing rivals. The Government affirmed its plan to accelerate the pace
of equitization of state commercial banks (i.e. transformation into
joint stock commercial banks). It also hoped that a number of state
commercial banks would be able to compete with other banks in the Southeast Asian region in the coming few years.
The Government also adopted a plan to revitalize the securities market. This included establishing government and corporate bond markets, restructuring the existing two stock exchanges and securities companies, and improving the payment system and the legal basis for stock trading agreements. A policy framework on the securities market will be established to better attract domestic and foreign investors./.
Source: VEN