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ADB forecasts 5.2pct GDP growth for Vietnam (12/4)
12/04/2013 - 21 Lượt xem
The forecast formed part of the bank’s 2013 Asian Development Outlook, released in Hanoi on April 9.
The country’s GDP growth slowed to 5 percent in 2012 due to the continuing impact of 2011’s tight fiscal and monetary policies.
GDP
grew by 4.9 percent in the first quarter of 2013, marginally higher
than the same period a year earlier, and the purchasing managers’ index
rose slightly as orders increased.
In
March 2012 the government approved a reform plan intended to strengthen
the banking system through mergers, recapitalisation, the adoption of
international prudential standards, and improvements in bank
supervision. Some financially stressed banks were merged, but there was
little progress in recapitalising banks or resolving non-performing
loans.
Tomoyuki
Kimura, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, said while subdued economic
growth prompted the authorities to ease monetary policy in 2012, credit
growth was constrained by the uncertainty surrounding the banking
system’s health.
He
pointed to how economic recovery depends on the acceleration of banking
and State-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms, suggesting the government
take a more strategically selective approach towards structural reforms
and particularly to SOE restructuring.
Some initial success and progress can spur further reform momentum, he said.
The
bank also forecast that Vietnam’s inflation is likely to be kept at 7.5
percent in 2013 before moving up to 8.2 percent in 2014. This view
assumes reasonable weather for food production, a broadly stable VND
exchange rate, and restrained policy stimulation.
The
trade surplus is expected to climb to a record US$12.5 billion in 2013,
while the current account surplus will likely increase again this year
before easing in 2014 as imports accelerate in tandem with GDP growth.
Despite
these concerns, the bank said Vietnam remains an attractive destination
for foreign investment because of its large and growing working-age
population and low labour costs. The general rising trend in FDI over
the past decade supports this.
However,
as ASEAN integration in 2015 approaches, the country faces increased
regional competition for finite FDI. Its ability to remain competitive
and drive economic growth back up to 7–8 percent will depend on
successfully implementing structural reforms and improving the business
environment more broadly./.
Source: VOV
Source: VOV
